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Comment by irthomasthomas | Hacker News Reader

It was 15C NYE and the record was 18.0C at Abergwyngregyn, Gwynedd in 1972.

I am pretty happy to be honest, considering the fuel crisis, this is a blessing to some. I am not convinced that life everywhere will suddenly be terrible just because it is a little warmer. We had warm periods before and things got better. The Late Bronze Warm Period, The Roman Warm period, and the Middle Age Warm Period.

https://imgr.search.brave.com/v3hRyzU6Mm1ShpkX2Z4SEYasQRtDD-...

Also see global greening https://www.nasa.gov/feature/greening-of-the-earth-mitigates...

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It is not going to be a little warmer: do you know about averages? Two degree higher average temperatures means many European forests will burn and not recuperate. With four, even Ireland desertifies. Climate change is only just getting started, by the time people like you realize action is needed, it will be much too much too late. The movie "don't look up" comes to mind.

Desertification was predicted but it didn't happen. The earth has greened instead. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/greening-of-the-earth-mitigates...

But you won’t get funding saying this. You need to make your subject of study a crisis in order to secure the funding to study it further. And of course the politicians that unlock the funding would do well if your model could align with their re-election strategy.

This is so not true it's not even funny: do try and get funding for any kind of denialism in the 2000's or any kind of mitigation-study in the 2010's, you will get some kind ear from many on the conservative side (conservation of-self-destruction). The work of the IPCC has been a slow slog for lack of funding.

First, it’s going to be a bigger change than those periods. The “business as usual” scenario is warmer than today by the degree to which today is warmer than the ice ages. (And I think at least some of those were local climate changes, not global ones?)

Second, it’s not about life everywhere except for people who stop as soon as they finish the headlines. Some farmland will go from marginal to good, others from good to marginal. Unfortunately the latter is going to hurt more than the former will help, fortunately there are already solutions, unfortunately they are expensive. Probably more expensive than green subsidies, even if the tech never improves.

Thirdly, IIRC, we don’t yet know the conditions which would interfere with the thermohaline circulation, but we have observed the bit near the the U.K. — the Gulf Stream — moving north. Mess that up and the U.K. suddenly turns from a pleasant mild-ish climate all year round into something more like Newfoundland, which is at the same latitude.

Do you know of any maps showing the relative position of the guest team over the UK over time?

Curious to see if there’s a prediction that Scotland becomes a lot nicer weather wise as it is at the northern end of the UK.

It is well known that the Romans had many vineyards in Scotland making wine during the RWP.

I added a greenland temperature chart overlayed with historical events. Yes, the previous warm periods mentioned where global, they where a lot warmer than today and things mostly got better. The last IPCC report fails to account for global greening, which is a giant effect. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/greening-of-the-earth-mitigates...

I’ve worked with MODIS satellite data.

Quoting your own link: """The vegetation cooling effect is large from the energy dissipation perspective, but only about 10%-20% compared to the pace of global warming. The cooling effect from greening is less significant in tropical forests with high leaf areas."""

Regarding the previous warm periods, I was right, and I just now found the following reference to demonstrate this:

"""More recent research, including a 2019 analysis based on a much larger dataset of climate proxies, has found that the putative period [the Roman Warm Period], along with other warmer or colder pre-industrial periods such as the "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period," were regional phenomena, not globally-coherent episodes.[7] That analysis uses the temperature record of the last 2,000 years dataset compiled by the PAGES 2k Consortium 2017.[7]"""

[7] https://boris.unibe.ch/132301/7/333323_4_merged_1557735881.p...

Lüning et al. June 2019.

"Abstract The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is a well-recognized climate perturbation in many parts of the world, with a core period of 1000–1200 CE. Here we are mapping the MCA across the Antarctic region based on the analysis of published palaeotemperature proxy data from 60 sites. In addition to the conventionally used ice core data, we are integrating temperature proxy records from marine and terrestrial sediment cores as well as radiocarbon ages of glacier moraines and elephant seal colonies. A generally warm MCA compared to the subsequent Little Ice Age (LIA) was found for the Subantarctic Islands south of the Antarctic Convergence, the Antarctic Peninsula, Victoria Land and central West Antarctica. A somewhat less clear MCA warm signal was detected for the majority of East Antarctica. MCA cooling occurred in the Ross Ice Shelf region, and probably in the Weddell Sea and on Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf. Spatial distribution of MCA cooling and warming follows modern dipole patterns, as reflected by areas of opposing temperature trends. Main drivers of the multi-centennial scale climate variability appear to be the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which are linked to solar activity changes by nonlinear dynamics." https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00310...

Edit: Bonus climate reconstruction from 1268 studies of the MWP https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1akI_yGSUlO_qEvrmrI...

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/greening-of-the-earth-mitigates...

And what exactly is the point you think you're making with that? From the link:

> Stopping deforestation and ecologically sensible large-scale tree-planting could be one simple, but not sufficient, defense against climate change.

So "global greening" is an anthropogenic phenomenon to counter global climate change. It actually confirms that we humans have the means and the possibility to meaningfully impact the climate, and that some of those efforts are proven effective.

Is that what you were trying to say?

Science denial. It's not going to stop at 'a little warmer'.

https://skepticalscience.com/10000-years-warmer.htm

It could do with being a little warmer.

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