It was already clear in September that this was going to happen, when fertilizer plants started to shut down because of the high gas prices[1]. (context: Natural gas is used to produce ammonia via the Haber process, and the ammonia is in turn used to produce ammonium nitrate and urea, which are used as fertilizer.) I already commented on it back then[2].
I wonder why those events took a while to appear in the urea price?
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/16/fears-for-u...