Compare Florida and California. Florida has 50% more deaths per capita. That’s a lot!
3-4% of the people having a risk of death would explain entirely the ~50% more per capita deaths in Florida.
In truth, I don't think you can actually just multiply all of these numbers because they are correlated (and possibly non-linear). Also, the vaccines are less effective in the elderly population.
1. Vaccines reduce the risk of death by more than 90%.
2. Given how effective vaccines are at preventing death, the extreme difference in per capita deaths between Florida and California is entirely attributable to the difference in vaccination rates.