Fwiw, the FBI couldn't recover the XMR it paid as part of entrapping a Navy nuke officer who was leaking sub secrets. Source is the indictment.
I read the indictment. They were arrested and charged. We'll see how the defense plays out but from a read of the indictment they made plenty of mistakes and will (likely) end up going to prison given the conviction/plea rate of federal prosecutors.
Once convicted a federal judge can order them to give up the monero (as I said in my original comment). On top of their time in sentencing for the original crime they can be held indefinitely until they comply with the court order.
In the end they'll go to prison and the government will squeeze them for whatever they can get.