But in general, I don't see a deluge of kids eager to become developers. Still seems very niche just like it always has been.
My experience matches yours exactly. Almost all of the good engineers that started late in life in my experience are just plain extremely smart and would excel at anything they did.
One friend that comes to mind wrote his PhD thesis in chemical engineering and then switched to being a software engineer. He is too motivated and too smart to fail at it even though he doesn't have what I consider that intrinsic spark that led him pursue computers at an early age.
To me the real test is mentality. The spark. You have to enjoy it enough to do it for 2,000+ hours a year. That seems rare.
I've been programming since I was 8. I've been drawing since I was 29. I will probably never reach the same percentile of drawing ability that I have with programming ability. That's okay for me because I enjoy it anyway, but from the perspective of training people to do their best work, starting younger can lead to higher ability.
Not to even consider the amount of people who get into their trade at such a young age. I'll be honestly surprised if they make up any significant amount of the population, and I'm saying this as someone in that boat.
I pretty firmly believe nearly anyone can learn to contribute in any area given enough time, but there's a lot of time between 0 and 18, and it's prime learning time when brain plasticity is high and responsibilities are low.
Is it really that controversial to say childhood shapes a kid's future?
Even today, 25 years later I feel like I learn things more effectively than when I was a kid. Certain types of skills benefit from experience and networked thought. Time per day/week is a much more limiting factor though.
you start to learn maths in kindergarten. you don't start to program computers there, usually. there are very good reasons not to do that (screen time!), but it will make learning to program easier later in life.
Lawyers and doctors basically need to memorise facts, apply rules and make deductions. Developers need to do that + math, hence why starting early helps you out, exactly like kids who did math or chess early on are better than their peers who started later.
GP is not saying you can't learn. GP is saying you're unlikely to be more skilled than those who started earlier. Also, past a certain age, there's a more limited amount of time you can dedicate to learning new stuff.
Me too, but I will never reach close to native level of proficiency. It's fun but just that.
Extremely basic stuff that was completely new to kids that grew up in a poor family that couldn't afford buy them a computer. This is in a country where college education is free or close to free, you just need to score high to get into a college and as a result many smart students who later become engineers learned using a computer there.
Adults can be motivated also, but the situations for such motivations necessarily decrease as they are able to do what they want without learning new things. They aren’t less capable of learning, just less motivated to learn. That is easy enough to fix (extreme interest is a good motivator, for example).
I do know of too many people who have changed careers into programming to write off the likelihood of learning it after 18.
I am the OP you're asking this of and I don't think first touching a programming language in college is a bad thing. And I also don't subscribe to the belief that learning has to become more difficult as you age.
What I was doing however was responding to the statement, "I think it ends with everyone becoming a developer". The reality is that almost all people have no interest in becoming a software developer. Most software developers have no idea this is true, but it is. This doesn't make most people's lives less valid or make them "dumber" or anything else pejorative - they're just different.
On the one hand you have people like me who stared fascinated watching my 5th grade teacher program a VIC-20 in Commodore BASIC that led my parents to invest a giant sum of money into buying a Commodore 64 for Christmas when I was 10. To give me a 300 baud modem when I was 13. I couldn't afford to buy computer books in the mall bookstores so I would go to a "book warehouse" near me as often as I could and I tell you I would literally get butterflies in my stomach as I approached the computer book section. I wrote my own BBS program at 14. In 1988 I read the Waite Group's Turbo-C Bible cover to cover repeatedly.
There are people out there who get just as excited about and have as much proficiency with bass guitars. I have a good friend that is like that. I respect his ability and interests as much as I hope people respect mine.