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Comment by chrisseaton | Hacker News Reader

Remember like a week ago when the Germany navy said the idea that Russia wanted to invade Ukraine was nonsense?

Fools.

It wasn't the German navy, it was the ranking admiral which had been removed from office immediately, as there was a strong disagreement with his statements.

> It wasn't the German navy, it was the ranking admiral

It he doesn't speak for the Germany navy then who does? Were the navy's intelligence reports wrong or was he briefed wrong or does he not believe his own intelligence people? What if he'd been still been in charge now? Would he still deny it was happening?

All possibilities point to something extremely foolish going on. Absolutely bizarre situation.

I wonder what he says now.

This honestly just isn't that significant. Germany's navy, and indeed, German military forces generally, are not relevant to this crisis and will play basically zero part in it.

So all of this analysis and blame-gaming you're trying to do just are not of much import.

I wonder what contingencies the Germany navy is planned for and capable of handling, if they couldn't even get their heads around this being a possibility?

The German navy consists of more than one guy (who, by the way, didn't state what you claimed he stated).

The quote is reported by multiple outlets, and he doesn’t deny he said it.

He did not state that Russia is not going to invade Ukraine. He insinuated that (in his opinion) it is nonsense to claim Russia had an interest in a small piece of Ukrainian territory, and that Putin demands respect and "...probably also deserves it." He was immediately fired afterwards because these personal statements (at a security conference in Asia) interfered with Germany's diplomatic efforts, which is always a big No No in the military.

> Russia did not have interest in a small piece of Ukrainian territory

Yet there they are, right now.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60468237

Yes, of course, and he was immediately fired. Your attempts to portray one official's opinion at a security conference, who was immediately fired for uttering it (a very drastic measure), as the voice of the German Navy are patently absurd. And, at pain of stating the obvious, it is not the job of the Navy to evaluate the possibilities of land warfare...

> He did not state that Russia is not going to invade Ukraine.

Goes to show what he knows. Anyone with an IQ larger than their shoe size has seen this morning's events coming since Crimea at the latest. The only way to avoid it would have been to make Ukraine a full NATO member in 2015, -16. (For a while I held out hope that the West would see this and do it, but... More fool I, for even hoping.)

> He insinuated that (in his opinion) it is nonsense to claim Russia had an interest in a small piece of Ukrainian territory,

Well he was sure right there -- it's not "a small piece of Ukrainian territory" Putin is interested in taking -- but that doesn't seem to have been what he meant, so he "was right" in that respect purely by accident.

> and that Putin demands respect and "...probably also deserves it."

Yeah, right, kleptocratic tinpot dictators deserve soooo much respect.

> He was immediately fired afterwards

And rightfully so. Not just for blabbing where he shouldn't, but hopefully mainly because he seems to be an idiot with no fucking clue.

None whatsoever.

That's not really what he said, the press twisted it a bit:

>>“Is Russia really interested in having a tiny strip of Ukrainian soil, to integrate into their country?” the 56-year-old said. “No. Putin is putting on pressure because he knows he can do it, he splits the European Union.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/german-navy-ch...

His point was: It's not about the "soil" but to split the eu....see the difference?

I first thought he didn't say "wanted to invade Ukraine was nonsense", but that Krym will not be returned to Ukraine and the world will have to come to terms with it. But you are right, he said "Russia wanting a tiny strip of Ukraine was nonsense" and that is indeed what just happened:

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/1/23/german-navy-chi...

It is nonsense... unless there's a greater endgame Russia is playing towards that we're about to find out.

A month ago. And the guy who said it was fired a day later.

It's probably true, though. I would guess that Russia didn't want to invade Ukraine. Russia wanted to extract concessions by threatening to invade Ukraine. But since NATO gave Russia nothing, not even some tiny symbolic concession that Putin could present as a victory, Putin, having painted himself into a corner (as per the Economist front cover), had no choice. And so some people will die. And other people (LNG vendors) will get rich.

It was about invading Ukraine and especially Kiev. The Ukrainian government had lost the control about the region Russia now openly operates in. They already did so before though.

"Is Russia really interested in having a tiny strip of Ukraine’s soil? No. Or to integrate it in the country? No, this is nonsense."

That's exactly what is happening.

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