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You have actual risks for food, fuel and the based on them products. Also, during the covid crisis, the central bank were trowing money like an russian oligarch in a nightclub while FED and likely ECB will raise the base interests to contain the inflation.

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I'm VERY curious about what will the Fed do. On the one hand, rate hike seems less likely, but on the other this will drive inflation up.

This is just more can kicking. It will be bad when they finally pull back, but they are also waiting for the best context to pull back. Inflation will continue to shoot up, the pressure for the Fed to finally act will build.

I'd like to know as well. However, I'd bet on raising the interests because the war will be bloody, ugly, and short.

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