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ericbarrett

They're going to open a second front in Northern Europe with 1/3-1/2 of their army locked up in Ukraine?

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And possibly immediately cause NATO action. Russia is really not in a powerful position right now.

They have nukes. They’ve indicated they will use them.

"Give us Poland, or we'll nuke you."

"Now Czechia, or we'll nuke you."

There comes a point where that bluff has to be called, and we're approaching it.

> They have nukes. They’ve indicated they will use them.

Then tell them they can do whatever they want with little response. Has the EU drawn up a surrender treaty yet?

I’m not advocating for surrender, I’m simply pointing out the reason why it’s complicated.

Who are they going to nuke? Finland and Sweden in exchange for Moscow and St Petersburg? Doesn't seem like a win.

No, definitely not to me at least, as I’m in Sweden…

If Putin really wants to go down in history as the man who wiped out the Russian population (and a large chunk of the rest), so be it. I think he's bullshitting.

Stalin already did that, but not with nukes. He did not seem to mind.

Stalin killed large swaths of his own population to keep himself alive and in power. Unless he's running this war from a submarine, Putin cannot have any illusion that he will survive an all-out nuclear war. Or that there will be anything left to be in charge of.

The leaders of world powers have stocked underground bunkers for emergencies like nuclear war. I would bet he could stay underground 5 years comfortably.

The US has ground penetrating bunker busting nukes (B61 mod 11). I don't think Putin can expect to personally survive nuclear war.

The Russian Army is about 1,000,000 men. ~150,000 or 15% are deployed to the Ukraine theater, and about 50,000 were sent in.

5-15% of their Army is locked up, and by all accounts, they did not deploy their newer and more expensive tanks, airforce, and equipment.

1,000,000 is the rough count of their total armed forces. It includes air, naval, and logistic personnel. Actual ground troops is about 280,000 plus maybe 50-100,000 special ops and missile forces. 150,000 of those are said to be stationed around or inside Ukraine. Even if not all 150,000 are committed, they can't be removed in their entirety without leaving supply chains and what not exposed to irregular warfare; the troops on the front lines, whether in advance or occupying the territories gained, will also need reinforcement and relief. I think my numbers are correct!

> They're going to open a second front in Northern Europe with 1/3-1/2 of their army locked up in Ukraine?

According to reports, only a third of the force deployed around Ukraine are actually in Ukraine.[1] So, about 50-60,000. So, there are as many Russian troops currently deployed in Ukraine as US troops currently stationed in Japan, give or take a few thousand.[2]

[1] Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Is Just Beginning (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/25/russia-invasion-ukraine...)

[2] United States Forces Japan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Forces_Japan)

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