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Comment by dathinab | Hacker News Reader

Honestly cutting out Russia as a gas supplier is one of the most interesting considerations.

- It would probably be what hurts Russia most

- It might have pretty good long-term effects

- But it also would hurt the EU a lot, especially eastern EU countries, like the _huge_ majority of heating (both rooms and water) in Germany is done by Gas (through also by house-central gas powered heating units in many cases). Also gas-powered ovens and stoves are still pretty common, too. This is not something which can be easily migrated, even less until next winter. So doing this decision will lead to quite a bit of civil hardship and even death next winter... It might still be the right thing to do. I just don't see it happen tbh.

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Removing Russia as gas supplier doesn't have to happen until next winter. It's a long term strategic decision. With proper incentives Europe could probably cut it's gas imports in half in the next five years through investment in renewable energy and become completely independent of Russian gas shortly after.

It isn’t entirely up to Germany to decide on a strategy that works for them. With the restrictions on SWIFT it’s entirely plausible that deliveries will seize, either because there no way to pay for them, or because Russia is willing to hurt itself in retribution.

Stores will get Hermany over the winter. No matter what happens, there will be a major push to improve efficiencies. Next winter might also see a return of COVID-era home office policies, allowing offices to shut down and reduce demand.

WFH may allow to reduce heating in offices, but will increase heating in homes. Net effect may be zero.

Meh SWIFT is a mild inconvenience. There is CIPS, BTC and even barter of goods. How to pay for a few billion euros of gas is the smallest problem.

EU wide subsidies for moving off gas to renewables (water heating is downright easy) would do wonders.

> lead to quite a bit of civil hardship and even death next winter.

Death? Hardly. Most German homes are well isolated and can be heated quite efficiently. If gas cuts out one can use an electric stove. Same for cooking, one can use an electric hob.

So hardship—yes, especially for the poorest living in undermaintained homes and no resources to upgrade. Germany will certainly put in support programmes for those affected.

> If gas cuts out one can use an electric stove.

That statement seems to conveniently ignore the reality of how electricity is generated and how much of it is available.

Cut off the gas supply without adequate notice, and the power grid will fail.

In practice there will be gas rationing.

By the way, is the German power grid really reliant on gas to such an extent?

It's not that the grid is reliant on gas, it's that if people switch from gas to electric for heat quickly, the grid might not be able to handle the sudden extra load.

Either way, it is known how much gas is available. It can also be estimated fairly reliably how much gas will be used a couple of days in advance, given the weather forecast. Therefore a gas shortage will be known in advance, and contingency measures will be taken, both for gas and electricity.

Germany is the richest affected country. There will be deaths in the eastern EU if this is done without massive western financial support, any COVID-related budget will be dwarfed 100x by what is needed for this, no eastern state has nearly enough money for it even if they dedicated their entire budget.

Eastern Europe has its own coal resources and coal heating is widespread. It isn't good for the emissions wise but it wont freeze.

We have the same situation with gas powered heating in the UK. There is a push towards heat pumps, but they are often expensive up front and don’t always save money in the long term (although if gas prices skyrocket this would obviously change).

I've been using a DIY air source heat pump (repurposed conventional air conditioner) for the last 6 years and the investment has been quite successful. Roughly the same bill as with gas, but I don't go through annual inspections etc. I paid ~EUR2500 for the whole heat pump installation. Unfortunately, conventional heat pumps (e.g. Mitsubishi, Daikin, LG etc) with the same capacity were priced about 3x that and as other have pointed out, were not economically feasible. Possible explanations for the latter are either marketing gimmicks (heat pumps are for the rich) or a lack of big enough addressable market.

I am not sure how easy it is to repurpose newer air conditioners that have a lot more electronics. Also keep in mind that in order to use a heat pumps efficiently, your heating system must be designed to work with relatively low fluid temperatures (mine runs at ~37 degrees centigrade). What worked best for me was a heated wall + fan convector for the living spaces and oversized radiators for the bedrooms.

Europe also gets gas from the North Sea countries Norway/UK/Netherlands, also Algeria and Libya. It can also import from US and Middle East via ship. Russia is a critical supplier but it isn't everything.

Yes, my assessment was based on this knowledge.

EDIT: Maybe I should add a bit of context: Even if Gas can be filled in from other sources there are limits and the price will hike quite a bit even if there is enough. Furthermore it's unlikely that Russia will take it lying down, cyber attacks on infrastructure for deviling Gas are to be expected and maybe even physical sabotage. At the same time to safe money many Countries have kept increasingly smaller Gas reserves in recent years.

I agree. But cutting imports from Russia quickly will be a major task. Is the US going to support the EU with subsidized energy to help with the transformation?

Shares of EU imports as of 2019 from Russia where as follows:

    Coal: 46.7 %
    Gas: 41.1 %
    Crude oil: 26.9 %

(Note: These figures are shares of imports, i.e. they do not consider domestic EU production.)

Source: Eurostat at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2...

One can not switch overnight to LNG. The infrastructure does not exist for it.

Not even USA is cutting out russian oil, why should europe?

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