Comment by quietthrow | Hacker News Reader

Comment by quietthrow | Hacker News Reader

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I sympathize with the tragic situation in both these countries for the common person. My curiousness arising out of this situation is forced me to try to understand it and it’s roots. What I found definitely changed my perspective on what to expect out of this. I went in thinking this is a pivotal moment and unsure what the future looks like. I came out sad that this is not a one off thing for the people of this land. If you look at this in the context of the last 150 years - almost every prominent leader in this land was a) never phased by the (sheer) human cost to be incurred as reason to not chase the outcome they wanted and b) the people of this land have never successfully risen up to counter the oppression they faced. Many died trying but they never had the critical mass they needed to overcome the oppression. I dot not claim to know the reason why. I am sure it’s complex but it has occurred multiple times and there is something there to be said for that.

Utterly sad and tragic. But I am no longer expecting spectacular revolt and a feel good ending. History suggests this going to go down the same way it has for a long time.

I really hope and want to be wrong on this one.

Russians generally support its countries’ imperialist activity. They supported the USSR, Afghan war (until it went terribly wrong), Chechen wars, war against Georgia, first land grab against Ukraine, and now, it seems, this one.

You can always argue, correctly, that it’s hard to know what’s going on in an autocratic country, but many of these polls were un controversial and simply not stating support for eg the annexation of Crimea wouldn’t be an offence.

I do feel sorry for how badly this is going to affect people in Russia, but equally Russians don’t seem to mind serving up hot hell to their neighbours. I don’t know how you can break this cycle without making Russians understand how badly they are hurting others.

Russia may not be a democracy but the state does rely on popular support for legitimacy, and has had it in the past 30-odd years.

> I don’t know how you can break this cycle without making Russians understand how badly they are hurting others.

I am pretty sure some of them understand, but if they try to tell their neighbors, they spend the next 15 years in prison.

You are mostly right, but mistaken in one significant way. Between the February and October revolutions of 1917, a nascent democracy was there. The monarchy has been overthrown and there had been reasonably open elections with diverse results to elect a body, that would decide the future of Russia. Alas, as bolševiks did not even come close to winning these elections, they disbanded the entire thing by force. But there is still hope. It could be done. One day I hope for a Russia that is not aggressive against its neighbors and cares about its people.

There won't be a critical mass of dissenters. Modern dictators have figured that if they boil the frog slowly, they'll keep revealing small slivers of latent dissenters and dealing with them is easy. From time to time a dictator needs to announce some ridiculuos law, with the only purpose: to see who is brave enough to dissent.

It is much more complicated than that. Read the Gulag Archipelago. You’ll find descriptions of True Believers who firmly believe everyone else but them is there for a very good reason. But with them, a mistake has been made. Hodorkovsky did not become a dissident before he was stripped of his glory as an oligarch. For, apparently, trying to buy the Duma at which Putin took personal offense. The media is full of folks who find Youtube and McD being closed as unjust but stay silent on or openly agree with the aggression in Ukraine. That attitude of “you muat die today so I van die tomorrow” is unfortunately very common. People generally agree, that sacrifices must be made for the glory of the homeland but change their minds once the axe reaches them.

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