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Comment by simonh | Hacker News Reader

Yet in the article he says “ The upside is that — and this is admittedly a strange time to suggest it — the world is going to be a lot less violent”.

Saddam Hussein was hardly a teenager when he invaded Kuwait, and Putin is no spring chicken. I don’t know what the answer is, but I suspect this guy doesn’t either.

It’s a shame though, since the collapse of the Soviet Union the share of the worlds population dying in warfare has collapsed. It was already on a strong downward trend after the end of WW2. Let’s hope Ukraine is an outlier.

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I think woodruffw meant that the conflict in the Old World might be spearheaded by those people who still have a romantic infatuation by war, which has been steadily declining since like WW1 but manages to hold on in some capacity to these days. Eventually we'll get to the point where people – contemporary young people, future born people – would not see physical violence as a means of settling political disagreements. Partly because they would know how precious life is in a low-fertility environment.

Ever heard of a Second Congo War? Of course, not. Who ever cares about what happens in Africa, right?

Africa is one of the few places that doesn't have a birthrate problem.

Because they have a very high child mortality. When child mortality goes down, birthrates plummet.

Ultra orthodox women in Israel have the highest life expectancy and a negligible child mortality rate but they’re having more kids than any African country.

Oman is a fairly developed country and they have twice as many kids per woman compared to poor Ukraine and almost-starving North Korea.

Cultural background is a huge influence in fertility. African immigrants in Europe have more children the poorer they are, the opposite of locals.

The birth rate in Oman has collapsed since the 90s to a bit above replacement level.

You’re right about the Haredi though. Congratulations, on a discussion of demographics across billions of people, you found one community of less than 2 million that buck the trend. Good for you.

Cultural background can have an influence, sure, but generally not enough to have a macro level effect. Hence the global trend.

Yes I have, it was horrible with millions dead. Few wars are not horrible whether in Africa or anywhere else. The fact remains that globally deaths per 10k people due to war was in serious decline at that time.

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