It has been going on for almost 6 hours now. It does feel like they haven't got a clue.
Catastrophes happen. If you deploy something that has a destructive migration you can't easily roll back without reverting to a backup and there's a problem that you've not seen in QA then you're in for a bad time. This is compounded if you also discover your backup process hasn't worked properly for a while. If that happens you're facing some serious downtime, and the dilemma of either trying to fix the problem, or trying to rollback to the last working backup.
There's a good reason why grumpy old devs like me insist on writing docs, having playbooks, testing everything including non-code stuff, and we still fear major deploys. I have scars from exactly those sorts of disasters.
Hopefully the devs at Circle get past this with as little stress as possible, and they learn from what went wrong.
So you might end up communicating something ("we think it comes from X, we're fixing it that way"), just to find yourself changing you mind a few minutes later.
Changing your message is usually not well perceived, even though that's actually normal during an investigation.
I would not like to be in charge of the communication. Finding the balance between saying too much or too little is tricky.