> to trigger further actions to be taken by the crazy man to the east
You are trying to argue that Putin is both crazy and rational in the same line.
> I condemn war, I don't want there to be a war, therefore I don't want more countries to join NATO as it would be another reason for conflict.
If someone wants conflict, anything will be a valid pretext for that conflict and if not one will be conveniently provided by a false flag operation. Standard Russian playbook since time immemorial.
> If war broke out here because we joined NATO, what would you say then?
The chances of that are roughly just as large as the chances of war breaking out if Sweden did not join NATO. But if you did join NATO then at least you would not be in the position that Ukraine finds itself in today.
Neutrality is a great thing, right up to the point where you are attacked yourself, and then everybody remembers that you took great pains to be neutral. I assume you do expect the rest of Europe and NATO to come and aid Sweden if it does get attacked?