Not saying you're clearly wrong, just that there are dynamics that I, at least, am not understanding.
Only commodities.
It is not. It looks like the author of the tweet cherry-picked some inflation components but overall it looks equally bad.
See https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/14442438/2-0...
It's a weird state to be in. The rational thing becomes to continue (leverage) the weird situation -- the market expects continued regular high spend for whatever regular big thing of the month/year -- and the irresponsible thing becomes any deviations that risk rocking the boat (ex: risk EU style rallying on austerity becoming a self-fulling prophecy). A lot on inflation concern is triggering FUD loops (sporadic supply chain hits vs YoY spirals), so when we know the market treats USD differently to beginwith, accepting the FUD (by policies that assumes the USD is a weaker currency) is kind of the worst thing policy makers can do. Likewise, most non-US countries rely on USD stability, so probably same thing for their policy makers.
I'd hate to be the one making these calls.
Can you share these data-driven economist findings?