Absolutely correct. The main thing is that the only viable independent platform, Netflix, has had serious difficulty maintaining agreements with content providers. That adds a lot of risk and uncertainty for prospective investors of an independent Hulu.
If they push the price too high then Netflix has the money to go directly to the production houses and buy shows themselves. I know they are experimenting with this now, but it is a model that will become more and more attractive.
You bring up a good point about Netflix/Hulu going direct to buy their content. I think we are seeing early signs of this, but it has been taking time to gain traction. Some of the early Hulu exclusives such as "If I Can Dream" were epic failures. But there have been successes as well, such as "The LXD".
The fact that some of Netflix shows failed isn't really relevant - the fact they commssioned them at all is the thing that should have content providers worried.