I think that oversimplifies the dynamics drastically.

First off, even if buying the shares at the reduced rate is highly profitable, you do need the cash to buy them. With the 50% that are floating around here that's a significant amount of cash.

Furthermore, with the dilution that's happening the stock price would also drop so while you gain on the reduced shares, you loose on money on your old shares unless Elon keeps buying.

I just don't see that it's the same as giving away shares for free (which is just adding dilution without additional capital costs for the existing shareholder). Feels to me like an all parties lose situation if it's triggered.