I'm pretty sure this could be reduced to the secretary problem where there's a pool of 2 candidates, which yields an optimal hire with probability 50%.
Maybe you play word games and say, "I guess the other number is not higher," or "I guess the other number is not lower." Since the number you observed was produced once, there is some non-zero probability that it was produced twice, in which case the other number is neither nigher nor lower.
Here's a hint that is not a full solution. If you knew that the numbers in both envelopes were independently sampled from the same Gaussian (but not necessarily which Gaussian), then there is a simple strategy that wins more than 50% of the time: pick an envelope to peek at uniformly at random and guess that it is the larger one if and only if it shows a positive number.
Why does this work? If both numbers are positive, your strategy is equivalent to "pick a random envelope" and you're left with a uniformly random choice of envelope. If both numbers are negative, you're also left with a uniformly random choice of envelope. But if one is positive and the other is negative, you win 100% of the time.
What are the odds of the third case? Well every Gaussian has at least some mass on positive numbers and some mass on negative numbers. So there is some nonzero chance, even if you don't know what it is. So while the strategy might not always do better than a coin toss, some positive percent of the time you win every time. And so you get a distinct advantage over random guessing.
The problem is now how would one transfer such an approach to the original problem without the Gaussian assumption. Somehow the two problems are less different than they initially seem.
Yep.
> Therefore, if the number is 9, both strategies tell you to do different things, yet in each case, your probability of winning is >½. There must be a hole in the logic somewhere…
For any nonnegative value C, the probability of Gaussian draw x being larger than (iid) Gaussian draw y is strictly bigger than 1/2 when conditioned solely on x > C.
The particular choice of C might change which specific draws of x and y the strategy succeeds with, but as you noticed for every C a thresholding strategy of the above form does give you some pointwise nonzero advantage over random guessing.
You pick an arbitrary threshold, if your envelope is below the threshold, you switch.
(You can add randomness as necessary.)
Choose a monotonically increasing function f with values between 0 and 1. Choose one of the envelopes at random. Then look at the number x in the envelope. Then, with probability f(x) say that you have the larger envelope.
Both are equally baffling in how / why they work.
A tangential question: real numbers are uncountably infinite. Are probability distributions over the real numbers likewise uncountably infinite, or do they form a higher infinity?
As for what uncountable cardinality they form, it's the same as the real numbers [0]. Roughly, a probability distribution is determined by the countable collection of real numbers P(X <= q) with q rational. That means the cardinality is no more than R^Q, which is isomorphic to R. (the cardinality is at least R due to, say, uniform distributions on [0, x] for x real).
[0] https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/3698864/why-does-th...
1. If the number you pick is positive, then there are technically (although arbitrarily small) more negative numbers that can be chosen for the other envelope. So you have a slightly larger than 50% chance of winning. 2. The inverse is true if you chose negative, however.
That said - I think this would generally imply you should always switch, which is why I'm not convinced I'm right. Consider a purely positive set, for example. If my number shows up as "12" - then I know there are infinitely more numbers larger than it, but only 11 numbers lower than it. But this starts to feel like the original two envelopes paradox.
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tldr; I'm not sure of the answer, although I think if I saw the answer I would have an "Aha!" moment.