Comment by gruez | Hacker News Reader

Comment by gruez | Hacker News Reader

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> An appropriately high tax on jet fuel would price the airline industry out of business.

Why would it? Looking around it looks like fuel makes up 30% of airline's expenditures. Disregarding profits, that means $300 of a $1000 plane ticket is for fuel. The current world wide price for jet fuel is $3.76/gal, and burning a gallon of jet fuel produces 9.57kg of co2. One source says carbon needs to be priced at least $100/tonne[3], which is in line with current prices in the EU. With that price, the price of carbon is expected to add $0.96 per gallon, or a 26% increase in fuel costs. However, it would only raise overall expenditures by 7.7%. I doubt that's doubt that's going to bankrupt airlines. Consumers will probably fully absorb the cost.

[1] https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/fuel-monitor/

[2] https://impactful.ninja/the-carbon-footprint-of-aviation-jet...

[3] https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/carbon-needs-cost-least...

$100/tonne is bogus. Overall emissions need to drop more than 10% per year [1]. There is no sustainable scenario where airlines continue to operate.

That's why I said an appropriately high tax. Any tax that can easily be absorbed by consumers, will not reduce emissions fast enough.

[1] https://www.showyourbudgets.org/?country=united_states_of_am...

Airline margins are already razor thin, about 10%, so increasing costs by that much would make them very close to not profitable. Not profitable industries die

Air travel will get more carbon efficient. The whole idea behind a carbon tax is that we start low and hike gradually, giving the market time to respond (rather than flipping a switch and raising ticket prices 7% overnight). Of course, the longer we wait the faster we have to hike prices (the timeline compresses), so it's hard to feel bad for industries that have resisted carbon taxes for the last decades. Moreover, if climate science is correct, the consequences of doing nothing far outweigh the loss of cheap air travel (of course, that's just a worst-case scenario; we absolutely don't have to choose between those two outcomes).

You realize that companies can raise prices? That's wha I meant by "Consumers will probably fully absorb the cost" last comment. Supermarket margins are even thinner than 10%, yet they aren't going broke during this inflation spree.

Economics 101: raising prices reduces demand. If airlines raise prices less people will fly — demand for flights is fairly elastic — further eating margins. Grocery stores sell food, the ultimate inelastic item.

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