> Scotland's implied deficit in 2020-21 was £36.3bn, or 22.4% of GDP. [1]
How has the price of oil changed since then? Cherry picking much?
How has the price of oil changed since then? Cherry picking much?
Infamously, the SNP's envisioned post-independence budget was based on their forecast for annual oil and gas revenues: £10bn. In reality they have averaged an order of magnitude less: £1bn.
Oil and gas are volatile commodities so there will be year-to-year fluctuations but the secular trend is clearly downwards. The best wells have run dry, and the UK is committed to net zero by 2050 and Scotland to net zero by 2045.
[1] https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-f...
Scotland doesn't have a deficit, because Scotland cannot borrow.
What there is, is a proportion of the UK as a whole's deficit, which is carved up and apportioned to us, but the Scottish government has no say in what that is or how much.
This is a good overview:
https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-f...
Yes, persistent (like the UK's) but not consistent as you implied.
9.2% and 20%+ is a hell of a spread to start cherry picking from.
More wisely, I would make my long-term economic decisions based not on the consequences of Tory governance, but on the potential upsides offered by managing the Scottish economy according to its own priorities.
Some might see this as an argument for ditching the folks who've overseen this downward trend.
The UK and Scottish governments are both committed to net zero, which means the managed decline of the North sea oil and gas industry. Sturgeon has publicly taken a harder position on this than Johnson since COP26.
If Scotland became independent nothing would change. Unless you think the SNP will confect new reserves out of nothing and abandon their climate pledges?
I misread the "downward trend" part as pertaining to the economics of the country as a whole, not the oil and gas sector as you clearly stated.
Oil and gas is dead. We're producing far more electricity from renewables that we use, and England is buying it because they are struggling for power.
Do you really think a sane English government is going to let the lights go out because they can't make a deal with an independent Scotland?