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Yes they’re incentivized not to, but when push comes to shove, they can basically choose their own form of “truth” and ignore/disrupt/revert transactions and others would need to fork the chain. It’s not a given which would succeed.

This has happened before

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Valid transactions are enforced by nodes, not miners (there are WAY more nodes than mining pools). All of a miner's incentives persuade them to mine on the longest chain, lest they lose out on potential profits. A group of nodes and miners can certainly fork if they please, but the network simply won't care. e.g. BCH/BTC

No need to fork the chain. Miners can just switch pools.

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