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Comment by drumhead | Hacker News Reader

I wouldn't be too sure about that the German people are rather more attached to the stability of their currency that the EU I'd say.

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The stability of their own economy is guaranteed by the Eurozone. Because of the Euro, Germany can run a massive trade imbalance to export their goods. You nuke the Eurozone, and suddenly German goods become massively more expensive for hundreds of millions of people, which will tank their income.

The German people are better off subsidizing other Europeans to buy their cars, like Ford did with their workers.

> The German people are better off subsidizing other Europeans to buy their cars, like Ford did with their workers.

To me this sounds a bit like the broken window fallacy [0]. That it’s good if sometimes a window gets broken, because it generates economic activity. But this ignores the fact that economic value was destroyed in the process.

Those subsidies could be used in other ways as well, perhaps by helping startups grow.

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[0]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window

> But this ignores the fact that economic value was destroyed in the process.

Value gets destroyed in the process of using anything, so much that we have a special word for it: depreciation.

Cars and other machines will wear out after enough use. Even more static goods like windows (usually the seals) fail with time and need to be replaced.

In the past, that was true. But German's current trade balance is actually negative. It's importing more than it's exporting. That might change again of course, but as of now there is no "massive trade imbalance" anymore.

Well, right. Not because we are exporting so much less, but pay hugely more for the things we are importing, due to the ballooning gas prices.

> You nuke the Eurozone, and suddenly German goods become massively more expensive for hundreds of millions of people, which will tank their income.

Yeah, but the imports then also become massively cheaper, so it might even out: Germany will just start importing more stuff e.g. from Poland instead of producing it locally.

>Germany will just start importing more stuff e.g. from Poland instead of producing it locally

And this way, they lose their main advantage: a strong economy that focuses on export. They can't have their cake and eat it too. Especially when their auto industry is set to lose greatly with the EV transition (which they still try to slow down).

No, they would export some stuff and import other stuff. It would all balance out. In the end, it must: what’s the point of exporting things, if you don’t get other things in return? Exporting is not a charity, you must import things in order for exports to make sense.

> what’s the point of exporting things, if you don’t get other things in return?

This take is utterly naive. What you "get in return" from being a massive exporter is not all quantifiable. It's soft power, influence, prestige. When everyone uses your machinery, you control the standards and their evolution, you control the market.

Plus, even going back to purely economic terms, you can absolutely export and then keep the accumulated money sitting in coffers, financializing the gains (lower borrowing costs etc etc), or invest in local research to extend your advantage, and so on and so forth. None of these options require importing anything.

"Evening out" would weaken and impoverish Germany, compared to its position now. I mean, we can do it, but I guess that's not what the German public really wants.

Germany needs the EU to offset their aging population and to import younger, skilled workers from neighbouring countries who share similar values. Without this, they'd be already like Japan, South Korea, etc. that is facing an even worse demographic time bomb.

Neighbouring countries have "the same issue". There are close to no people to import with similar values without making matters worse for that country.

I live in Germany, an immigrant myself. Plenty of people from neighbouring countries choose to move here, from France, Spain, Italy, Poland etc. People vote with their feet. If you can’t get a decent career going elsewhere that’s on the local employers and labour market laws.

Germanies economy is in the shitter* and I have a feeling they will be tightening immigration shortly.

*Still a strong economy in the grand scheme of things, but during period of contraction unable to support short-term generalized expansion of foreign labor. I do think they are in a position to expand foreign labor again in the long term (although it may require finding a way to refactor their energy policies).

Tightening immigration isn’t easy with Schengen and other agreements with EU partners. Unless you exclusively mean non-EU migrants. I haven’t seen any proposal from the current government suggesting they’d clamp down on migration when the population is slowly dwindling and there’s a permanent shortage of workers in most industries in Germany.

Germany does seem to be a case study that open immigration does "work" at least to the extent it hasn't destroyed Germany? The job seeker visa is trivial at least as an American to get, it has me scratching my head why my own country doesn't offer something similar.

Germany is even worse off in that regard than Japan and South Korea. However, the EU isn't really needed for that, it just makes it a bit easier.

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