The strategy of Russia pointing at a very unlikely fire safety issue and the coyness of Ukraine not taking direct responsibility for it (yet) are interesting from a communication perspective.
But the government indicated this was an “accident”. Just looking at the video with two simultaneous explosions hundreds of feet apart it seems that was some amazing feat of synchronized negligence. But the propagandists immediately stopped calling for investigations or revenge and switched topics.
This describes so many things. I love it.
It will be interesting to see what Russia says when the "accident" repeats again in another location.
It is interesting that Russia aren't accusing them of attacking. That's a bigger deal to me...
It makes sense though, there's no benefit in accusing Ukraine in this, otherwise it means 2 things:
- anti air defense didn't work
- panic between civilians in Crimea (more so than now people already leaving their holidays)
I don't think red lines exist. Maybe for using western supplied munitions.
So yeah, the conscripts getting upset and burning down a base is very believable.
Keeping the confusion going is a big advantage
The Ukrainians don't need to take responsibility since it's obvious to everybody not swallowing Russian propaganda that they did it... Looking at the traffic jam to leave Crimea, it's also obvious to many Russians there.
I think that traffic might show that Russians are afraid that the bridge will be destroyed, so not only they don't believe Putin's propaganda they are now realizing that things will get worse and need to escape while is still possible.
If only they would realize sooner that Putin fucked their future once more with this war and that is time to put him down.
And: Usually, ordinary citizens are in no position to take down a dictator unless they risk life and limb by taking to the streets. Some tried, but unless the system starts showing fractures, I doubt many more will. Getting locked up for up to 15y in a terror state is a pretty tall order.
I am from Romania, I know how it is done, you need just a spark and a few people with courage to start it, it also helps if the army won't fire on their own parents and brothers but I have no idea if Putin brainwashed or brought in Moskow the most retard of the retards of soldiers (we in Romania know about presidents using brainwashed, less intelligent people to do the dirty thing too).
It really depends on how well Putin brainwashing works, and how many Russians will move the blame for their poor economy to nazzis, gays and their mean neighbors that for illogical reasons want to enter into a defensive alliance.
I would claim that current Russia isn't comparable, I don't see signs that the regime is severely weakened and the security apparatus would stay neutral.
For a bit of added context, it's a common story that I hear among my friends here in Ukraine with relatives in russia that when they tell their relatives "the russian military are shooting at us, and we have had to hide in the basement", even their relatives respond with "No, you haven't been hiding in your basement. It's all fake."
In fascist russia, the television propaganda cable is thicker than blood.