If wheat production is up due to over planting, and that drives the price down, is that actually going to end up hurting Ukraine because now they can't export their wheat at the same price as before?
The optics of the war seem a little staged. Gas prices down, wheat exports … up? It almost makes sense for Russia to dig in and prolong the war beyond a year to show that such optics are not sustainable by the US.
Strategically, if I were Russia, I wouldn’t even consider a ceasefire until winter passes and Europe gets hit with heating costs, just to make my point. It’s the only point of leverage left.
In normal times. But now most of Ukrainian wheat exported by sea and probably almost all exported by ground gets hoarded by Europe without getting to the most vulnerable African countries.