Ukraine exports mostly to the Middle East and other nearby Asian/African countries. I don’t know if the US has plans to divert our wheat to those places.

The optics of the war seem a little staged. Gas prices down, wheat exports … up? It almost makes sense for Russia to dig in and prolong the war beyond a year to show that such optics are not sustainable by the US.

Strategically, if I were Russia, I wouldn’t even consider a ceasefire until winter passes and Europe gets hit with heating costs, just to make my point. It’s the only point of leverage left.