Comment by ccooffee | Hacker News Reader

Comment by ccooffee | Hacker News Reader

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> If global warming reaches around 3°C toward the century’s end, Deloitte’s analysis indicates that economic damages would grow and compound, affecting every industry and region in the country.

I'm betting we overshoot +3c by a fair bit. Given how little progress has been made (emissions are still _accelerating_), I'm at least pleased to see some resource that doesn't merely talk about +1.5c. We've passed that point already. The IPCC's 6th report estimates that if we merely burn the GHGs that are easily accessible via our existing mines, oil rigs, etc, we're headed to +2.5c.

I really hope that Deloitte's report here does some good by giving financial numbers to people who only care about the numbers. (But I doubt it. Very few people with ANY decision-making power will be alive in 2100. "Why worry? I'll be dead.")

Doesn't look like GHG emissions are still accelerating: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

Your source looks at 2020 emissions, which is TRUE, but 2020 was covid shutdowns. I've seen somewhat-reliable estimates of 2-7% reduction in CO2-equivalent emissions. (If you look at 2019, it was remarkably about equal to 2018 after many years of increase.)

But 2021 was the biggest (full year) of emissions ever, more than covering the 2020 decrease. I don't know of any resources that track quarterly emissions, so I don't know if we can see whether 2022 is on-pace for another record year. Perhaps the price of oil reduced usage enough to reduce emissions this year compared to last, but I won't hold my breath.

Regardless of whether it's another record year overall, I don't think there's evidence that GHG emissions are accelerating.

GHG emissions are dropping year-over-year in developed nations, and developing nations will follow. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/carb...

"Will" is future tense yes. We expect the acceleration to reverse. As you say there is a reason to be optimistic if you look at the parts, but if you just look at the sum it's pretty bad still.

In other words: you are both right.

No, I am saying that current worldwide emissions are not accelerating.

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

2000 to 2020 seems like a steeper line upwards than 1980 to 1990, but yea, since 2011, it does seem we've rounded the corner.

I will adjust my belief. Thanks.

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