The survey [0], fielded in late 2019 (before GPT-3, Chinchilla, Flamingo, PaLM, Codex, Dall-E, Minerva etc.), elicited forecasts for near-term AI development milestones and high- or human-level machine intelligence, defined as when machines are able to accomplish every or almost every task humans are able to do currently. They sample 296 researchers who presented at two important AI/ML conferences ICML and NeurIPS. Results from their 2019 survey show that, in aggregate, AI/ML researchers surveyed placed a 50% likelihood of human-level machine intelligence being achieved by 2060. The results show researchers newly contacted in 2019 expressed similar beliefs about the progress of advanced AI as respondents in the Grace et al. (2018) survey.

[0] https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132

Yeah, I don't think there is even any agreement about what criteria a "minimal AGI" would need to meet. If we can't even define what the thing is, saying we'll have it within ten years is pure hubris.

Uh... no. Most researchers have moved their timelines to somewhere between 2030 and 2040.

You can argue they're wrong, but there is absolutely a general consensus that AGI is going to be this generation.