But my point is that this seems to have been a gradually growing problem for some time, but the recent spike from covid is likely a temporary bump greatly exacerbating it. It'll drop down again. Then, gradually, climb back up to where it is now. If it reverts to the mean quickly, it still won't take that long to get to where it transiently is now based on a straight line trend so maybe it's just a point of pedantry.

tl;dr at a glance it looks like lingering effects of covid have pushed the english health care system into a state a single digit number of years ahead of schedule. It will likely wear off, but getting back on track isn't much of a relief.