Wow, he's almost as bad as Gruber. Why is someone who admittedly has little to no experience with Android (because he despises it so much) making predictions about its future?
I'm pretty sure that the average technically-inclined Android user knows more about the Android than the average technically-inclined iPhone user. But Marco's experience building and successfully marketing mobile apps skews it quite a bit.
Also it's quite common to be familiar with something you despise, for instance in war people become familiar with the enemy.
Finally, to answer your question, he made the prediction because he thinks a lot. He shared it because he didn't see anyone else saying it. If numerous Android experts were already saying it, I don't think he would have bothered.
I sometimes wonder how the world would look like today if Steve Ballmer had the power back then to simply reject Firefox. Or if Apple had to ask Sony for permission to release a new smartphone.
Given that, I expect that side-loading on the Kindle Fire will be as insignificant as side-loading has been on Android phones. After all, it isn't like phone side-loading helped a company build an app store that they later married to their other content services to make a rich ecosystem for a new tablet, now is it?
Oh, wait...
It seems reasonably that the fire could outsell all the other Android tablets combined by 2x, possibly even in its first quarter of existence. Amazon has a great brand and distribution channel, and the Fire is very good value for money.
It also seems quite reasonable to suggest that Fire owners may well purchase apps at a significantly higher rater than other Android tablet owners or even Android phone owners. Why? Because the Fire is all about buying content, and the apps are presented in the same context. Also, Amazon's store may work better than the Google's one.
These aren't foregone conclusions, but they seem quite reasonable.
If these two things work out, then Amazon's app store could easily end up being the channel for most Android app revenue.
Then, it would be an easy decision for app developers to target the Amazon store first.
Due to the rumors that Amazon has two more Kindle Tablets coming out in 2012, I'd say there's a better chance that the Kindle Fire will never sell 12-18 million before people lose interest in the original model.
Where do you get that 6 million figure from?
The nook doesn't include the Google app store, so if 6 million includes it then the relevant figure is much smaller, and if it doesn't then you're 9 million number is irrelevant.
And you're supporting Marco's argument by suggesting that Amazon will soon produce some even more compelling tablets.
The only point here is whether Marco's prediction that Amazon may end up in control of Android App distribuition is 'ridiculous'. It clearly isn't, and you haven't shown otherwise.
I was referring to this statement. I rather like Amazon and the Kindle Fire, I just don't see them selling 2x the total amount of Android tablets that have been sold thus far.
If you weren't including all other android tablets when you made your comment, then you shouldn't have used the phrase "all the other android tablets combined."
The 6 million tablet figure is an estimate from Andy Rubin.
http://www.androidauthority.com/there-are-over-6-million-and...
As far as Amazon taking over app distribution, I don't think that it will happen. As stated elsewhere, there are many more phones than tablets, and that isn't going to change. While Amazon's alleged Kindle Phone may be as big of a success as their tablet, it still won't represent a large enough market to matter to Google.
That said, what matters is not how many devices are sold. It's how many app buying customers adhere to each store, and how much they spend. The vast majority of android phone owners are not buying apps.
This is true. I have been using android since the G1 launched, yet I have probably only spent about 50 dollars total on apps. When I see an app that I want or need, I purchase it. I've purchased 4 different PDF readers in order to find the best one. (not including the PDF reader that came with docs to go) Unfortunately there just isn't much that I would need even on Google's own market.I would probably buy a lot of games, but there's only a couple on the market that are worth playing.
It's not that the Kindle Fire isn't a great product, it's that it's not relevant to the primary Android market - cheaper smart phones for the 99% of people around the world who can't afford an iPhone.
There's definitely going to be people who don't buy apps, and who don't install many in the first place, but for those who don't want to buy them (or don't have a credit card, quite common in most of the world), free ad-supported apps need to be in place.
If people can't afford to buy apps, can they afford a data plan, or to buy the advertised products?
I certainly think there's a necessity for free apps. I'm just not sure that there's any necessity for ad-supported apps.
Don't get me wrong - I'm certain that there are a lot of people who like to choose advertising supported products. I'm just skeptical that it's out of economic necessity.
Most of Africa's like this, same with a lot of Asia - Visa and Mastercard have very little footprint there. Instead people use cash to buy pre-paid access from their mobile carrier.
You're right there's a question around what kind of adverts you'd display to them though.