In the business/tech centers, there practically IS no business/tech centers, with all this moving out of Russia into the western nations and baltic states -- there will be huge growth after the war is over in most EU countries that aren't Russia or Belarus.
Short term, I think it will be a struggle, long term I think weaker Russia is good for the whole world, I'm hoping china begins to decline too - esp with the real estate crash they have looming, if they lose their ass on foreign real estate our housing prices might go to some semblance of normalcy. Here in Utah, the average home price went from 200k 10 years ago to 600k now, only way I'll ever own a home is if I buy land and build a $10k earthbag home lol.
Yeah I agree that the future looks bleak for Russia, actually regardless of how well they fight. They lost, long term, when they didn't take Ukraine in 3 days. They showed a weak hand and I suspect even their ally China will treat them as a second partner and with some contempt. Perhaps the best outcome would be the Russian government falling again and this time western powers actually helping out, but I doubt they'll collapse in a way that lets that happen, or that society there will accept help, or that western countries would be interested in helping anyway.
China will decline, they're not in a great place demographically. And this is my personal opinion: China had the opportunity to become great, with just a little more freedom they could have leveraged their hi-tech manufacturing base and encouraged innovation. But instead the leadership got scared that they were losing power and sent thing in the wrong direction. It's not that they aren't innovative, it's just that has been tempered enough that they won't take the lead and all the other issues - demographic, geographic etc will take them downhill. Which is a shame because instead of a (slightly) freer world we get nationalism and unpredictability; who knows now what they'll do if they can't deliver on better living standards and an ever improving economy? Invading Taiwan would be stupid from many perspectives, but as a way to drum up and hold support of the population maybe it works?
I don't think the war will be over until US and EU decide to stop sending weapons to UKR. Now, in terms of UKR prevailing, no matter how you spin it, they lost 20% of their country and the majority of their fighting ability if not for external support. Doesn't look like prevailing to me. Basically any chance they had to be "independent" state are gone, either they are occupied or in heavy debt/reliance to the EU/US.
Yes future looks bleak for Russia indeed, but the same is the outlook for EU. A broken relationship with Russia never worked with Europe historically, and for good reasons. Also, Russia cannot be "helped" from the "west", its not "yet another" country. Whoever I know that has been there, can confirm that its a special place with dynamics that are not entirely understandable by western values.
I don't see China declining, the opposite actually. Yes COVID hit them (which for me screams "Cui bono" to the whole covid thing, but thats off topic) and they are doing bad demographically, but their struggles are not in vacuum. Europe is getting hammered and its even worse demographically, US is in a "esoteric mode" dealing with problems from within.
I disagree with your line about independence. America funded the rebuilding of Europe and Japan after WWII. It is way more in the interests of us in the west to have independent states rather than vassal states. This is where Russia is failing - if they make Ukraine a vassal state and install a government the people there will forever agitate and cause trouble, it will always be a thorn in their side. They'd have to attempt Russification once again, and how well has that worked out?
Small states are never independent completely, but internally independent and being rebuilt by western allies is surely a lot better than vassal state of Russia. Especially as the majority of Ukraine wanted to loosen ties with Russian and join the EU - thus why we're where we are.
China has a worse demographic problem than Europe. Fastest ageing country. Yes Europe has some similar problems, but the worst place in Europe for that is Russia.
You don't seem to follow recent economic developments then
> Basically any chance they had to be "independent" state are gone
Ukraine is more independent now than it ever was 2013 or 2021 and all is telling that it will be even more so after the war, so I'm not sure what you are smoking there
The future looks better for Europe/Ukraine than you'd expect over a 4 year term.
Not so much for Russia. Putin made Russia a pariah state like North Korea
While I'm not sure about Europe, Ukraine seems lost: they're at the mercy of the IMF and had to give up their economic independence. In the best case, they can emerge like Bulgaria, Romania, etc in a decade or more - moderate brain drain, industry bought off, moderate corruption. In the worst case, they'll suffer massive brain drain, all their industry will be bought out or lost, high levels of corruption and they'll be reduced to providing labour and raw materials for the EU.
The war will likely strengthen the nationalist and extremist factions in the country and make it even more difficult for the government to reach a compromise. It's not clear if the fledging democracy will survive this war. Beforehand there were concerns that the president has too much power, now with political parties banned it's uncertain how a meaningful opposition would look like.
On the military side, even ignoring that they've lost a large chunk of territory, they are still neighbouring Russia. And despite the optimist messaging, Russia has many ways to make Ukraine's life harder or even snuff it out. From targeting energy and industry, to chemical weapons and even nukes.
Additionally, in 4 years time they will have insane profits from gas, where the pipelines have already been laid. Europe will be able to stop all payments to Russia and change it to Ukraine.
In the future, they will probably do similar preparations like Finland did ( since Finland got invaded hard also in the past).
Russia is already the pariah state. And while Europe is harboring fleeing Ukranians, we are tightening ties and exponentially tieing their future WITH Europe ( eg. The English language).
Ps. The future of Ukraine tied to Russia would have been a joke, just check Chechnya and Syria. They are way better off if they are open to it. Just check GDP growth of Poland, that's what partnering with Europe means and can do.
How does this reconcile with warnings by the Belgian government that we can expect between 5 and 10 hard years? Or the comment by the French president, that the "end of abundance" has arrived - which perhaps wouldn't be so bad, if it really were an era of abundance for large parts of EU societies.
That the EU has 2 choices in the long term:
1. bow to Russia's demands and lift the sanctions. Gas will be turned on and its price will fall, but now Russia knows that they have a weapon that they can and will use against the EU when they see it fit. Also it would result in a huge uproar, most EU states are very pro-sanctions despite the hardships.
2. Do not lift sanctions. In this case the gas price will stay high, but will certainly fall long term. Also Russia will have no leverage against the EU. Also the situation is not so dire as it seems: Russia supplied ~15% of the energy to EU, so if the EU can lower its energy demand by a bit and get a bit of energy from extra sources they are set. People did the math and its possible, likely in 2 years there will be a minimal effect of no gas flowing from Russia.
As for the "hard years", its not just the energy crisis caused by Russia turning off the gas valve: After the constant boom of the 2010s its time for the bubble to burst. Global warming effects are starting to hit hard, the supply chain issues starting with COVID and getting worse with the war made governments realize that you cannot outsource everything; moving back production to the West will casue lots of price hikes. Also boomers are now starting to retire causing the most experienced part of the workforce to shrink drastically and being replaced by pensioners who just cost states money.
So no matter what we do with Russia the next 15 years will be hard -- I'd say that the belgian government was optimistic with the 5-10 years estimate.