A lot of models do not take age distribution into account. For example, if you have a "boomer" generation that is transition into a high-risk-of-dying age group, then the projected number of deaths will be low and the deaths high, making it look like you have a lot of excess mortality.
Slightly more complex models that project the number of deaths from a larger timeframe (for example 5 years) minimize this kind of error, but there are still many more factors to take into account.
EuroMOMO is a European standard for calculating excess mortality. They calculate data variance and thresholds where the model would consider deaths outside of statistical error[1].
Across European 28 countries (420 million people) their model shows[2] a considerable amount of excess deaths in 2020, 2021 and 2022. So according to that model, the pandemic is very much still a present danger.