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Comment by FiberBundle | Hacker News Reader

It's really not that absurd. The fact that it looks entirely irrational for Russia to do this is exactly why they might have done it. Their intent is to cause division in the West. They could potentially hope for EU countries to blame the US or Ukraine for this. If you read Twitter trends you already see an army of Russian bots pushing the theory that the US has done this.

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> The fact that it looks entirely irrational for Russia to do this is exactly why they might have done it.

Any analysis predicated on "the enemy is perfectly irrational and will not act according their interests" is not analysis. It's untethered from reality, which is convenient, because you can support any conclusion you desire.

Robert McNamara's #1 life lesson was "empathize with your enemy" (he dealt with the Cuban Missile Crisis). Sun Tzu said "If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles." This timeless wisdom has basis in reality.

Unfortunately, realism in Washington has been replaced with insane, petulant ideologues like Victoria "Fuck the EU" Nuland" and Michael "Of course we lied" McFaul.

People like Michael McFaul is exactly why the invasion happened in the first place because the Obama admin was weak on Russia after the 2014 invasion. They are the opposite of ideologues.

The Obama-Biden admins definitely induced the current crisis over Ukraine, but it certainly wasn't because they were too permissive.

It is actually bipartisan idiocy. Goes beyond Obama/Biden perceived weakness and weird foreign policies. Don’t forget Bush ambassador to Russia - current CIA director who personally managed to convince Putin that entire former USSR is solely RF sphere of interest/influence

Putin was not content with having his fiefdom and threatened Western security interests by blowing up the post WW2 global order. He stepped out of line and now Russia suffers for it. That's the realism. China knows it and that's why they aren't backing him. This isn't about ideology, democracy or human rights. This is warlord invoking the wrath of imperial gunboats.

>It's really not that absurd. The fact that it looks entirely irrational for Russia to do this is exactly why they might have done it.

Yeah, let's just forget all about Occam's' razor.

>If you read Twitter trends you already see an army of Russian bots pushing the theory that the US has done this.

Because it makes sense? US social media is 100% pro-Ukrainian propaganda and any slight dissent, criticisms or questioning is met seemingly instantly from multiple accounts alleging Russian propaganda. Meanwhile the biggest impact on American social media is American propaganda. Including about our alleged ally, Ukraine. And like Israel, they seem to be more trouble than they're worth as far as the interests of the average American citizen are concerned.

It's not just Russian bots, unless I've been deepfaked, Biden announced he would do this if Russia invaded Ukraine prior to the Feb invasion.

Biden most certainly did not announce he would do _this_.

Ok, in the conference he specifically calls out Nord stream two but there is definitely a glint in his demeanor/timing that says "we can destroy it" when the journo exasperatedly asks "but how will you do that [put an end to NS2]"

https://mobile.twitter.com/ODELL/status/1574758411392131078?...

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