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Comment by mastax | Hacker News Reader

Chinese law should almost never be considered something that constrains the government, and especially not in grandiose cases like this. The government will do as it pleases, regardless of the law. That is more of a strong press release than a binding proposition.

However, I am not arguing that China is not serious about retaking Taiwan. They are deathly serious.

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They are not retaking Taiwan. They never had Taiwan. Taiwain is the last bastion of the democratic government of china.

Chiang democratic? Sheesh.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiang_Kai-shek#Mass_deaths_un...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_Republic_o...:

Following the ROC government's retreat to Taiwan on 7 December 1949, the Temporary Provisions together with martial law made the country an authoritarian one-party state despite the constitution. Democratization began in the 1980s. Martial law was lifted in 1987, and in 1991 the Temporary Provisions were repealed.

ROC has been democratic since the 01990s, but it was an authoritarian dictatorship that killed millions of its own people at the time the Communists drove it out of the mainland (only to exceed its atrocities with their own) and for decades afterwards.

The KMT have an awful track record as being horrifically authoritarian.

OP isn’t wrong though contemporary Taiwan is a model democracy in a region where there are few.

I think pinning Taiwan as "last bastion" of some democracy that existed before is incorrect as any honest history of the KMT can see.

Even dishonest histories of the KMT are rarely so dishonest as to claim the ROC was democratically governed before 01949, however much they try to whitewash the mass killings. Disinformation has to be plausible to be effective.

All this arguing about what the KMT did and the relationship going back to the ROC doesn't matter. Today Taiwan is a democracy, is no threat to anyone, and deserves every right of self-determination. Democracies should work together to collectively protect each other from the authoritarian countries that want to take them over and destroy their democracies.

"going back to the ROC"? It sounds like you aren't aware that the ROC still exists; it governs Taiwan. Some of the things you say are true but it seems clear that this is purely by coincidence, not a result of any knowledge you might have of the topic.

"Chinese law" - an oxymoron ;)

They said they will retake Taiwan and they can and few will really care. So of course they will.

Whether they can or not is highly questionable. "Few will really care" is certainly false.

And in terms of nation states caring, that's also incorrect because Taiwan is a linchpin of US Pacific foreign policy and for the US to do nothing or "not care" about Taiwan being invaded would signal to allies in the region that they cannot count on the United States and that they should find their own defense arrangements. It would de facto kick the US out of the Pacific and end global hegemony overnight.

Frankly, Taiwan is a big fucking deal w.r.t US, Japanese, and Australian national defense concerns and is a big deal to other nations such as New Zealand.

I did mean few American voters

Is that true either? I'm not sure. We'd have to look at various polling results to start with and then go from there. I know in my previous suburban neighborhood and even moreso in my urban neighborhood that there are Ukrainian flags hung outside of doors and windows. I've never seen that before or anything like it.

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/24/american-support-ukraine-po...

They can't, not even remotely close any time in the next 20 years at least. Can you imagine what a landing beach would look like being pounded by drone spotted artillery? See war in Ukraine. Forget the approach, anti ship missiles, mines, sheer volume of logistics needed. Stepping on the landing beach is a suicide without absolutely astronomical advantage in air power and ability to suffer huge attrition, even then.. 155mm hidden under camo/thermal nets, DJI drone rigged with magazines of small bombs.. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson Childs play, this would make Diep and Galipoli look like walk in the park.

I would go as far as to say that US Army + Marines + Navy could not land on Taiwan without suffering multiple brigades of attrition AFTER at least a year long blockade and air campaign. It is that hard.

PRC has to surpass US in GDP, then spend 10-20 years of US level military spending, then maybe.

China can just send cruise missiles to start and ignore beaches.

A major power with 1.2 billion people can take an island of 20 million 80 miles away from its shores.

If they want to make a desert and call it peace, perhaps. Seems like a bad strategy to smash a crown jewel before you annex it.

They will take it without a fight

That simple sentence is doing a lot of heavy dodging to ignore all of the points brought up in the post upthread about the inherent difficulties involved in naval landings.

Now, if you're going to say economic pressures will lead to political settlements without conflict, then that's a discussion to be had.

Putin called he needs your brilliant strategic advice. 1 week to Kyiv or was it 2 days? I can't recall. This kind nationalistic PRC BS is how they will start a war, get defeated than have another civil war with 100 million dead.

They will fire 10,000 drones/missles and destroy the power/water/internet/fuel since those are legit military target as we saw in iraq war 1

this is applicable to most countries...

wriggling around the law needs only an emergency.

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