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Comment by Hamuko | Hacker News Reader

I think there's a lot of variance in how much analysts are valuing Twitter; Dan Ives is valuing Twitter at $25 billion. Kevin O'Leary (of Shark Tank fame) valued Twitter at only $10 billion. But I think all analysts are agreeing that Elon Musk paid way over market price.

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Don't need to be an analyst:

* SNAP is -87% from 2021 peak

* META is -75% from 2021 peak

* PINS is -70% from 2021 peak

* TWTR was acquired for -30% ($44B) from 2021 peak, -70% to -80% gives us $12-18B valuation sans Musk.

Those aren't ideal comparisons; Meta's embroiled in its own problems, and Snapchat is losing users. Pinterest is also widely-hated and practically dead.

Twitter was unprofitable, but people generally accept that for companies with consistent user growth. The valuation without Musk would likely have been around $25B to $35B. "$10B" is the fundamental DCF valuation, which isn't what anything is traded at these days, even after the tech crash.

That's tough to debate since you're arguing the unknown. How about this instead. Musk revealed his stake on April 4th and his intent to acquire on April 14th. One could argue the TWTR rally across March was due to Musk buying his ~10% stake in the first place but we'll ignore that.

July 1st, 2021 to April 1st, 2022

* TWTR: -42%

* META: -37%

* SNAP: -44%

* PINS: -69%

>Snapchat is losing users

So is Twitter.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-where-did-tweet...

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