I think a lot of people are going to jump in here making this same point, so just to clear it up: what I'm saying isn't incompatible with any grand design Musk might have on Twitter.

I personally think Musk ended up with Twitter because he lost a game of chicken with Parag Agrawal, for whom there should be a marble statue erected in Bowling Green commemorating him as a hero of shareholder value. You can think otherwise. You're wrong, but it doesn't matter! We can arrive at the same analysis.

Whatever Musk's grand strategy is, his first order of business is to strip Twitter down to some efficient core. He'll want to put his own big plans in place, not Parag's. Even if you think Musk really wanted Twitter, he certainly didn't want it because he thought there was a lot of value locked up in Twitter's internal plans.

The point is just: Twitter was bound to get a bunch smaller in the near term because the first order of business here is to do a reset, and to shake off all the long-term bets Twitter was making. Public Twitter had to make those bets; otherwise, the only way to value it would be on the ad revenue it was already bringing in.