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Comment by nonrandomstring | Hacker News Reader

Crystal balls are back in fashion, along with smoke, mirrors and ectoplasm. Centennial recurrence perhaps.

Note the disclaimer of all practitioners who dabble in the dark arts; this is for entertainment purposes only.

An artist friend recently wrote an essay [1] associating AI art with "soft propaganda for the ideology of prediction". An interesting phrase I thought. Is prediction an ideology? Is blind faith in "AI" ushering in secular denominations of crystal botherers?

It's a feature of the interregnum, similar to that of the 1920's perhaps, that we grow ever more desperate to peer around the corner of time, and so ever more credulous of techo-spiritualists, mechanical mediums and silicon psychics.

[1] https://hyperallergic.com/772848/ai-art-is-soft-propaganda-f...

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Not quite sure what most of what you said means, which is probably my own fault. But it does sound flowery, vaguely profound and poetic in a graduate studies essay kind of way.

Meanwhile, if you're interested in how this particular predictions market actually functions (spoiler: neither smoke, nor mirrors, nor ectoplasm make an appearance, and thanks for making me look up that last one): [0] [1].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project

[1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecastin...

> flowery, vaguely profound and poetic

I'm British you insensitive clod.

If they're providing better results than actual crystal balls or tarot cards, isn't that progress to be (cautiously) celebrated?

That's actually a really good question about the nature of progress.

I suspect there's something more to finding yourself in the tent of Madame Mystic Meg than a simple wish for foresight. Machines that are eminently successful at foretelling might only amplify that pathology (minus the incense, elegant dress, mood lighting and arabesque panache).

Even if 2023 is not far away, it's important that we as a culture look forward towards the future and not get bogged down in the drama of the day (be it twitter, covid, or inflation), it robs us of time to plan to grow for the future and prepare for future challenges.

Looking even one year ahead is good.

I think determinism is the word you're looking for.

It's a good word. And I catch your drift. But no, not quite.

If determinism were at play free will (and the utility of knowledge) is scuppered as surely as in an unintelligibly random, indeterministic world.

The straw I'm clutching for has more to do with the (cult)-ivation of apparent access to secret knowledge. Gnosticism? (perhaps a little too woolly).

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