Currently it is impossible to know whether the increasing numbers of people identifying as trans is due to less fear of punishment as you say, or due to hormonal disruption. The only way I've thought of is long term studies of endocrine disruption quantification in pregnant mothers and their children, correlated with transexualism.
> This is barbaric if you think about it for more than 5 seconds.
It is barbaric to not even consider a different point of view because it opposes your religion (yes, I think it is a religion at this point)
Sorry if I appear harsh, but I believe that in a couple of decades we will look back at what the pharma industry is doing to "trans" people as we look back on lobotomy now.