The diffusion art models make it very clear that these technologies go from toys to replacing people’s jobs very very quickly.
Short of a (not impossible) breakdown in civilization, the current rate of change suggests that 5-10 years is probably unrealistic.
More like 2-4 years, it will be technically possible to be reasonably high level software engineering.
It’s already possible to chain high level “how would I do x?” Planning to “write code to do y…” code generation.
It’s very very obvious that technically it’s going to be possible to do a great deal of mechanical work like refactoring and adding trivial features automatically.
Companies do not need 50 engineers doing 100x productivity.
They need like, 5.
What remains to be seen is if governments and legal systems allow that scale of displacement of human labor to occur or not.
…buuut, I wouldn’t be holding my breath.