In the meantime, I suggest that you consider whether you would reevaluate your priors in any meaningful way if, as I expect, SBF is ultimately not prosecuted.
1. A lot of money was lost, especially rich people's money.
2. The fraud is particularly egregious, that is where it wasn't just a one time thing, but where the whole enterprise was a house of cards.
3. Where there is a clear smoking gun.
1 and 2 are obviously true in the FTX case, and I think given what has been reported so far that #3 will also be fairly apparent (e.g. there are tweets SBF made at the end of September that were lies that deliberately tried to hide the token movement between Alameda and FTX).
I'd easily bet that SBF will, when all is said and done, spend at least a decade in jail.
This is also why SBF can not testify to congress in person as he will likely be arrested once on US soil as a flight risk. Also why he didn't attend the recent NYTimes event in person -- again he can not step foot on US soil right now or probably ever again.
But what is life like for someone living outside the law who stole billions from angry people including likely many criminals? His life expectancy would not be long.
https://manifold.markets/mr22222222/sbf-convicted-of-a-felon...
(On Manifold, you can only donate winnings to charity rather than withdraw, which allows them to legally operate.)