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Comment by petodo | Hacker News Reader

Meanwhile CZK Czech crown is strongest against euro in 11 years, so much for euro being helpful in any way. And if you look at Eurostat stats Eurozone countries have consistently lower GDP growth and higher unemployment than countries not in Eurozone.

I wonder what will fall first, whether EU or Eurozone, there are hardly any benefits for anyone joining now unless it's extremely poor country (EU).

As for convenience, everyone pays with card anyway, so it absolutely doesn't matter what the currency is anymore.

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> there are hardly any benefits for anyone joining now unless it's extremely poor country (EU)

There's a massive benefit and that's the free movement of goods and people. The EU has lifted up both poor countries and made rich ones richer... Ask Poland, CR, SR, the Baltics, etc... what they think of the EU. And France and Germany have also benefitted, both have doubled their GDP since the creation of the EU.

> Meanwhile CZK Czech crown is strongest against euro in 11 years, so much for euro being helpful in any way.

The CR is in some ways a bit of an outlier - they're very heavy into manufacturing, have been growing very fast plus have had a rather conservative monetary policy.

> The CR is in some ways a bit of an outlier - they're very heavy into manufacturing

Made easier when well over two-thirds of your exports are to EU countries, with zero tariffs. GP then has the nerve to conflate Eurozone membership with EU membership to fit their hazy narrative - the lack of rigor is astounding.

> The EU has lifted up both poor countries

not really truth, all of these poor countries had huge growth prior joining EU and it just continued after joining EU same as it would continue without joining, not thanks to EU, which is wishful thinking of EU proponents, look at Serbia GDP growth for instance, higher than any EU country and even fresh EU members Bulgaria and Romania had huge growth prior joining, same with central Europe, you will have trouble finding poor non EU country without massive growth

but yes money wise it's beneficial for poor countries to be net receiver of funds, for well of countries which are around zero contributor/benefactor there are hardly any benefits left

> look at Serbia GDP growth for instance, higher than any EU country

Absolutely false, Ireland has had higher GDP growth, and closer peers like Estonia or Lithuania have had comparable growth rates to Serbia, which is all the more impressive (or underwhelming for Serbia depending on how you look at it), because these peers have much more developed economies (on a GDP per capita PPP basis) and sustaining high growth when you're already developed is harder.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2...

It's not true. There was massive growth and investments into Eastern Europe after EU admission. Most of Serbia, aoart from Belgrade and Nis is very much like Romania or Southern Bulgaria (Nortwestern Bulgaria is depopulated) in the 2000s. Their infrastructure has also benefited from EU investment programs, despite being alligned with Russia.

Also the wine industry in these countries and also in Hungary has seen major growth and huge quality improvements. In fact this industry has been growing in Moldova and North Macedonia as well as a consequence to increased EU exports.

Serbia GDP per capita is half that of Croatia...

> have had a rather conservative monetary policy

Sure, besides massive money printing 2013-2017.

> Ask Poland, CR, SR, the Baltics, etc... what they think of the EU.

Considering significant eurosceptic parties (at least in CZ and PL) this might not go as well as you'd hoped.

> And if you look at Eurostat stats Eurozone countries have consistently lower GDP growth and higher unemployment than countries not in Eurozone.

Sorry but "if you look at Eurostat stats Eurozone countries" is not going to cut it as a source when you make such bold claims.

Playing around with World Bank data, you can see that out of a selection of non-Eurozone countries (Czechia, Serbia, Albania, Bulgaria, Romania), and Eurozone countries (Estonia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Latvia), and checking their PPP GDP per capita growth, it's a complete mixed bag. The only cluster that emerges is non-EU, non-Eurozone countries doing significantly worse than EU countries:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?end=2...

Very similar story about reported unemployment rates with the same selection:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.NE.ZS?end=2...

yeah right, here unemployment in Eurozone vs rest of EU, this chart ALWAYS looks same, Eurozone always worse than non euro EU

don't go on my with your selection matching your agenda, show me all Eurozone countries vs all non Eurozone EU countries

https://mobile.twitter.com/EU_Eurostat/status/13674145166240...

as for GDP growth rate there is absolutely no difference between Eurozone vs non Eurozone EU

https://mobile.twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/15199795585603...

There is no reason to join Eurozone at all. EU is worth it only for poor countries.

You're using EU vs EU-but-non-eurozone data to leap and conclude that "EU is worth it only for poor countries", the intellectual laziness on display is astonishing and I'm done here.

The Eurozone is not a good idea unless all countries try to do balanced trade voluntarily. That doesn't work if there are countries like Germany in the eurozone because other countries will have a perpetual trade deficit, effectively exporting unemployment from Germany to other nations.

What developing or growing countries need to do is export their products to the rich ones so they can build up their domestic economy and pay off debts with the fresh money in their country. This doesn't mean huge export surpluses, exporting as much as you are importing is ok. The lack of of an exchange rate means German products are valued at the average between western and eastern Europe so everyone buys from Germany almost exclusively which isn't healthy in the long run.

A currencys value is far from the deciding factor of said currency or somehow in your case how well the EU is doing.

Also gdp growth is not an important indicator since most well developed countries will see their gdp growth stabilize, but even if we take your point at heart it isn't true[1].

Its ironic you bring up Czechia, since it's an excellent example of how a strong economic Eastern European country is still reaping te reward of being in the EU. [2][3]

[1]https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp-annual-growth-...

[2]https://www.statista.com/chart/18794/net-contributors-to-eu-...

[3]https://archiv.hn.cz/c1-66927630-co-nejlepsiho-prineslo-cesk...

Strong CZK is partly due to FX interventions (sell EUR, buy CZK) done by the central bank (https://think.ing.com/articles/cnb-fx-intervention-september...). The idea is that interventions makes CZK stronger, which makes imports cheaper (think gas etc.. bought in EUR), which lowers inflation.

Well ČNB could afford to easily do this thanks to money printing (and buying up EUR) it did 2013-2017.

So still an argument for independent central bank with its own currency.

> Czech crown is strongest against euro in 11 years

You say that as if that was something to strive for. CZ is an exports-heavy economy.

> I wonder what will fall first, whether EU or Eurozone

Fall? First? What does that even mean?

Putting aside the nature of a fallen EU, which probably is a semantics game anyway, not worth getting dragged into, it is even harder to understand how the ECB would operate without EU agreements in place.

Same with swiss CHF. Euro looks just as unstable as the dollar from this perspective

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