I think you could be underestimating it. I’d guess there’s a simmering level of interest among a lot of people, especially those more conscious of moving away from big tech / corporate platforms. FWIW, this tipped me over the edge into setting up a Mastodon account — it was very painless. We’ll see whether I actually start using Mastodon, but it’s a start.
I think you're probably underestimating how many people are going to care about Mastodon.
I think we should average out what you are both estimating.
This. Reminds me of [1]. Although I never finished reading it.
They have grown from 300K monthly active users to 2.5M in December. Nothing compared to social networks at large, crazy numbers compared to the omg.lol user base.