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you can calculate the odds of life arising from interactions in the universe. you can't do that for some extra-universal being, constant across time and space, creating life on their fancy. i suppose you could if you are trying to estimate the likelihood that the universe is a simulation and you assume the simulation is somehow driven by some intelligent force that set the initial and boundary conditions of the universe.

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Science has no agreed consensus on what the definition of 'life' is. If we can't agree on its definition, how can we accurately calculate the odds of it arising ab initio?

Also, your second point is the wrong question being asked. The first is "how likely is it that life arose by chance in a lifeless universe?" The second should be "how likely is it that this ordered and organised system in front of me is the product of engineering and intelligence?"

Based on what we know about information management systems, it's extremely likely that any information management system that we stumble across is the product of intelligence and intention.

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