I'd still bet we avoid a recession in the US, even if certain industries (like tech) contract sharply.

It's easy to forget tech is not the economy at large. What I think most people would classify as tech jobs — working in “internet publishing and broadcasting and web search portals” — are less than 0.3% of total payrolls employment.

But tech makes up ~26% of the S&P 500 market cap, so tech gets a lot more media attention because the companies are so valuable.

Layoffs are terrible for anyone involved. But even with the roughly 200K layoffs at public and startup tech firms in 2022 and 2023 so far, that's .001% of total US payroll employment.