Efficiency + surprise = shocking price tag. Resilience + surprise = a minor bump.
Reading it after the fact sounds obvious, and I kick myself for not realizing it before, but yes.
One of the most stressful parts of my career was when we accepted trying to a crazy plan from a crazy CTO, where "every release has to have a new special feature". "Nothing big", we thought, until we saw the insanely detailed deliverables from design. I tried to push back but got called a pessimist. We then obviously worked on 100% capacity for a few months and it "worked", until it didn't. Things started collapsing due to technical issues, bit rot and "random" security issues. In the end we found the design and product teams were also working on 100% capacity. The plan had been hailed as a fantastic achievement in a company-wide meeting, so scrapping it took an insane amount of convincing.