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Comment by cratermoon | Hacker News Reader

I hadn't even been aware of Apple's App Tracking Transparency until now. I'm not sure how much it's driving the overall tech bust. There's no doubt that falling ad revenues, to which ATT is something of a contributor, is a big part of the downturn. Those that lean heavily on ad-driven revenue are leading, and not in a good way.

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It has been brought up in the earnings reports for most ad tech companies since it was released. It’s been a massive impact. Anyone who wants to measure the impact of their ads is now competing with big players who can afford to spray and pray. You can no longer tell if someone saw your ad yesterday and decided to come to your website to buy it today.

And I’m fine with that. Companies that support my privacy and respect boundaries can have all my money.

I think most of us generally agree but it is interesting to see the impact. I’m curious how many people tap ”Allow app to track me”. Knowing what it used for and feeling like it isn’t _that_ big of a deal, I have never once given permission. It doesn’t feel like my problem so don’t track me.

This is the opposite of "Buy Local" to those that care about that sort of thing, as Walmart can afford non-targeted ads vs. small mom-and-pop groceries.

Big players aren't "spraying and praying" by and large. This is a common misconception. They often have spend large enough to do properly controlled (long term/geo hold outs, etc) statistical experiments to determine incremental lift with MMM and such.

Is there some waste? Sure. But certainly no worse (and likely better) than small businesses who don't have the volume who are paying for clicks without proper incrementality based measurement.

Good point! I’ll refine my statement and simply suggest that those with smaller margins are unable to afford to do this same thing.

And specifically, they could afford to start advertising, safe in the knowledge that they'd make the most of their tiny budget. It's pretty sad what has happened to lots of niche businesses since the ATT change.

I would like to know more about who exactly is impacted. The article mentions that Nike's revenue is way up, so I guess they weren't hurt too bad by less targeted advertisement. Is it only adtech that is damaged here, or adtech's customers?

My guess would be that most of the small margin advertisers can’t afford these traffic channels anymore. Anyone who can’t afford to attribute traffic at a wider scale.

It's both adtech and adtech's customers who are getting hurt.

Small/mid sized adtech (and eventually any not directly attached to a platform) can't do shit anymore. Small/mid sized customers therefore have to go to the bigger platforms (YouTube and Facebook, notably) to get anything decent.

They're paying more for less, and power is concentrating in the big adtech players further. The flip side is, security of personal data is on average significantly better. But overall privacy seems like a wash or marginally worse, to become significantly worse once monopoly abuses kick in.

Shiver me timbers

It's going to be fascinating to watch the influencer economy really take off. Customers, such as myself, are looking to brands they trust. At first I was dismissive of the influencer economy, but now that I'm doing more of my own research I draw from their experiences and recommendations. And I ignore ads that are pushed at me.

Influencers talking about stuff are ads.

They're just a different channel.

Yes, I know they are ads. But it is the difference between push and pull. Consumer Reports is the oldest influencer style. But you go there seeking information on things you are interested in buying. But once you've completed your purchase you almost never have to look at it again. This is the opposite of what we consider ads. You start with a small interest and for months afterwards you're bombarded with similar products.

I've found it to be extremely difficult to differentiate between 'push' and 'pull' because you're almost never aware as a mark of how far the chain of influencing your really goes. It is very well possible that whatever put you on track of the influencer in the first place was already part of the campaign and it may well extend into your private life in ways that are difficult to discern.

That conversation you overheard in the elevator? That 'chance' youtube video linked to you? Some on twitter making an off hand remark? That visit to a website or a physical store with your smartphone?

All of these and more are part of paid campaigns.

> It's going to be fascinating to watch the influencer economy really take off.

I hope I'll never see it happen.

Also, I don't trust any brands. Maybe that's because I was born and live in a post-soviet country but I assume everyone wants to rip me off.

Facebook was kicking and screaming about it, they effectively got it delayed, and when it did it pretty much capped them.

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