Comment by recuter | Hacker News Reader

Comment by recuter | Hacker News Reader

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As soon as I saw interviews with the Nikola guy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trevor_Milton) I started shorting. What a rollercoaster that was.

When Hindenburg published this gem: https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/

I literally started screaming with joy like a lunatic at my phone in the middle of the street.

Turns out... even an obvious obvious obvious fraud can keep going like wile coyote for prolonged periods of time. Do not friggin recommend.

I also have been trading the Turkish lira for over a year. Also do not recommend as they flat out cheat and gaslight on.. frankly historical scales.. as well as get foreign currency under the table from fellow despots.

If you're wondering what the hell would possess me: at some point they started making schemes like "citizens it is your patriotic duty to sell us your gold jewelry so we may smelt it, we will give you a great price promise" -- the list of shenanigans got so long and comical and the central bank balance sheets so iffy I couldn't help myself. It is very true that western media under reports this, they might mention the out of control inflation but don't explain how the country is run by clueless mobsters.

Being correct directionally is not nearly enough. Be very careful. This Adani thing mostly bounced back already, unless you're willing to be very patient as it unfurls over literal years you very easily could lose money despite being right.

> Turns out... even an obvious obvious obvious fraud can keep going like wile coyote for prolonged periods of time. Do not friggin recommend.

I think there's a famous saying about that: "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

When you're shorting an obvious fraud, remember that those who need to sell are those dumb enough to buy the fraud in the first place.

You're not betting just on whether they did a mistake, you're betting on when will they realize it.

Exactly. You wouldn't do "obvious fraud" with this setup: you would do "things that aren't obvious but a couple good researchers could prove". You don't even need to scare everyone out of the security, just do enough to make a few big players go "ooh, I didn't know _that_".

"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

> the country is run by clueless mobsters

This is the correct take. The world is nowadays largely owned and operated by various criminal organisations that rake in more cash in a month than entire nations do in a year. Thank you, prohibition.

How could he interview that poorly that you decided to sell immediately? Got a link?

He would say stuff like "this truck runs on an html5 supercomputer which is the industry standard" with his best poker face.

Here is a random CNBC clip, look at these absolute lunatics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYBj83HttG4

I remember being unable to sleep wondering if the audience at his events were all hired actors. But then they couldn't be as that is a conspiracy involving too many people. Looking online he had actual fans and true believers and they were basically illiterate people gambling he is the next Elon, absolutely nothing would phase them.

The journalists interviewing him clearly had no idea about the difference between a gas powered and a hydrogen vehicle. And neither did he as he would steer the conversation into folksy directions whenever anything remotely technical came up.

I did a lot of soul searching and accepted that this is the stupidest time line and the emperor really is naked. And this time I caught his tiny wiener flapping in the wind in time. It was just beyond obvious.

And the market cap kept rising and rising!

Same here.

I thought it was so obvious and then called out publicly and exposed.

It doesn’t matter. I think that as long as the right people in the media are greased it doesn't enter the mass consciousness.

If you look at the mass media, you will see that the actors on the news will show emotions around certain subjects, they will make a grind or a disgusted face while talking about a problem at a company or a political movement. That is what change people mind when repeated many times.

This video (from a shadow banned account) show how the media talk with one voice. https://youtu.be/ZggCipbiHwE

> This video (from a shadow banned account) show how the media talk with one voice. https://youtu.be/ZggCipbiHwE

That was that Sinclair media thing. The fact that they have independent teams serving many smaller markets gave it away. If (say) CNN were to do the same thing, they could probably reach an even bigger audience with one guy reading the script, which can't be exposed with a supercut.

Maybe I've listened to too many CNBC interviews, to me he sounds like any other exec? "Blah blah everything is going great, we need capital but it's going great".

Just a totally bland exec call, standard for that station. But also keep in mind it is essentially an advertising segment. They pretend not to be, but the way you get yourself on the show is a quid-pro-quo: some producer will need someone to say something interesting to fill up CNBC's day, and this is something, so the guy gets put on in exchange for an easy interview. I know people who've been on the show, and people who presented on the channel. This is why you get a lot of recurring guests like Mr Jones from Jones Asset Management coming on over and over, the little guys need to promote themselves.

> Maybe I've listened to too many CNBC interviews, to me he sounds like any other exec? "Blah blah everything is going great, we need capital but it's going great". > Just a totally bland exec call, standard for that station.

Yes it almost makes your eyes glaze over. By design. But you see ,unlike an actual exec at an actual real company at this point in time he is burning cash and literally has nothing to sell and nothing to show.

If you listen carefully to his explanation of when he plans to actually show something and sell things -- you will note that it is... complete... gibberish..

> But also keep in mind it is essentially an advertising segment.

Absolutely. And what is he advertising at this point in time? :)

Imagine he was talking about a super sonic long distance electric VTOL plane instead of hydrogen trucks.

"We have no debt and plenty of money in the bank and these things are going to roll off the factory line next year just as soon as we figure out the PR with our customers as the timelines are tricky. Meanwhile we can't show you anything. Please buy my stock."

How do you short, through puts? Or selling shares short

Nikola is the only time I didn't use puts. With forex you get a lot more leverage. I don't recommend any of this. I think you need to be dead inside.

I also directly shorted $NKLA shares. There was no realistic way they were going to make post-SPAC buyers money, but I also didn’t know if it would take 3 months or 3 years to unwind.

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