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Comment by echelon | Hacker News Reader

I take Zeihan with a grain of salt, but his thesis that "children were free labor for farms, but are expensive poodles for yuppies in crowded houses" rings so true.

Kids distract from the modern, busy, downsized life. They're a major time and financial burden, and they only add headache. You can't make them do meaningful work for you. They get in the way in ways that were impossible a century ago. You can't hop on a plane, take off after work, or shut them away and have them mind their own business. Not like on a farm, where kids could roam free, learn independently, and help with the mountain of chores.

This is tongue in cheek, of course, but there's definitely some truth to the calculus of whether or not to have children. And it's on everybody's minds.

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That explains why parents don’t have tons of children anymore (well, also dual-income houses are a thing, and it’s just not feasible to manage the lives of more than 2-3 children to middle class standards with both parents working). But it doesn’t explain why people have to delay children so long, which likely does reduce overall fertility rates.

I think it’s good that children are not viewed as an investment (note this is still the case in many cultures where communal living/financially supporting your parents is expected). But if it means fertility rates falling to drastically low SK/Japan levels we have to explore policy solutions.

> But it doesn’t explain why people have to delay children so long, which likely does reduce overall fertility rates.

I think it's much the same reason. When children are viewed as a giant economic and lifestyle cost, a lot of people will delay until they feel more ready. As things like good family housing become proportionally more expensive, it makes sense that people will want to wait until they feel more financially established in their careers and lives that they're comfortable taking on that kind of debt. And on the lifestyle front, there's more than ever that DINKs (dual-income no-kids) folks can spend their ample money and free time on, making having kids an even larger perceived opportunity cost. Why have kids in your 20s when you can't afford a house and can spend your time as a couple traveling or whatever when you can have kids in your 30s instead when you feel like you can better afford it and are maybe ready to settle down, or so the thinking goes for a lot of folks.

I had kids young. First one at 21 and my 2nd at 23. Now I am done having kids. Talking to friends, a lot of it is, it is a major financial burden. Now in their mid to late 20s, they are waiting because they hope in the future to be more financially stable.

Now my person opinion. Unless your a millionaire, your never financially "stable" enough to have kids. It is going to kick you in the "balls" one way or another. Rather it is affording diapers (not so steep) or child care (almost take a whole pay check for many people) or medical. With that said, there is a degree where if I had to do it over, I may have waited.

Presumably your kids are 10 or more years old now? If so (as I’m sure you know) childcare and medical has gotten much more expensive in that timeframe

Under 10. I am not quiet yet 30, so my oldest is 7. But yea, medical is no joke. Not even just the actual medical bills. At my current job, I pay about $1k a month just for them to have insurance. The company covers my premiums, but barely anything if I have dependents.

> it doesn’t explain why people have to delay children so long

it does; people want to wait until they're more financially secure/stable before having kids given the costs of raising children, and they are less likely to reach that stability until well into their 30s

As a parent, sure, seems about right. That said, these days I think it's more about having them around when you are old, rather then when you are young. Perhaps they seem like a burden now, but I sure will appreciate two doting daughters when I'm an old curmudgeon.

> but I sure will appreciate two doting daughters when I'm an old curmudgeon.

Fingers crossed. My worry(?) is that any children I potentially have would move across the country (or world) and be fully occupied / overwhelmed by their own lives.

I am a child that did this. While for some it might be permanent, for others it can just be temporary - I moved back for a year while my father dealt with a terminal illness.

From my perspective, my mother can visit me just as well as I can her - I shouldn’t have to live by where she chose to live if it doesn’t work for me (and it doesn’t - the job opportunities stink and even if I did work remote, there is just a big cultural clash between me and that area). Once parents retire it is just as much on them to relocate close to me as it is I to them.

When I think about my desire to have children, I frame it in terms of them getting what they want, rather than sticking around like a pet.

Parent has to do everything for the child for the child's entire life.

Bad deal.

You shouldn't be having children with the perspective of a financial payoff, free therapist, etc.

I don’t think parenting is a bad deal for the same reason any other kind of entertainment or fulfilling lifestyle choice is a “bad deal”

Before marriage, I made sure my partner agreed with me that if we had kids, we would not act as if our kids owed us anything. I did not want to bring people into this world just so they can work for me.

If they want to, and we happen to live near, then great. If their goals take them elsewhere, then that is great also.

If the birth drops below 1 per person (or 2 per couple), the decision to not have children may have only positive consequences for the present, but has serious implications for the future. Of course, those implications could be positive - we may figure out how to be as comfortable, fulfilled etc. with less human labor. Even so, the long term consequence of a global shift to a non-replacement birth rate are substantial (and also, duh, long term).

ps. yes, i know that the opposite is also true.

My youngest son graduated in 2020. Two and half years later, my wife and I moved to Florida to a resort community for six months and we fly around the US the other six months. That’s definitely true.

This is not crazy - and it, along with better birth control worldwide, is why many researchers are predicting a population peak in a couple of decades.

It seems affordable housing, UBI and four-day workweek of sorts would be a start.

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