I take issue with the characterisation of "poor timing" which makes it sound like a matter of accurately predicting an event occurring at some instant in time. Failure to do that teaches us comparatively little, much like failure to win the lottery.

In reality, it's about picking a position that one can hold through various trajectories and that is profitable in most of the more likely ones. If one has assessed the actual trajectory at a lower probability than reasonable, that's still something we can learn from.