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Comment by rossdavidh | Hacker News Reader

I don't know who did it, but I do know one thing: the political angle on this is far too strong for me to trust any intelligence agency's conclusion, whether Germany, Denmark, US, or anyone else. Or, for that matter, and private sector news organization's article. Ten years from now, it might be possible to have an objective, just-the-facts investigation into it, but in the middle of a war and a worldwide economic shockwave from the war, there is far too much politics for me to trust any conclusion.

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This is how I've come to feel about almost everything in the news.

For sure, there's many different motivations from many different parties to forcefully shut it down like this.

I don't believe Russia did it though; sure they wanted to shut down gas flow to Europe, but they did that by just... turning it off.

Ukraine is a candidate, because forcefully shutting off a source of income to Russia would help them. I don't believe that (+ the sanctions) have been able to stop Russia though, they've got other sources of income, enough savings to last a while, and a strong grip on the population so it cannot revolt or anything.

And the US is a candidate, on the one side as an ally of Ukraine trying to force Europe to stop sending money to Russia, and on the other as a seller of LNG at increased prices.

But it could be any, and I doubt any conclusive investigation will be published as-is or unsealed during our lifetime.

I don't have strong opinions about who did it, but I wouldn't dismiss Russia that quickly. Russia has a long history of utilizing false-flag operations. They were pumping them out almost hourly leading up to the invasion. If they had been able to successfully pin it on the US the wedge that would drive in NATO has obvious benefits for Moscow. Their reasons for doing it seem as plausible as for any other state actor. It's also less risky for them. They've already gotten near maximum blowback from the west. Whereas it's a really risky thing for the US to do given the massive blowback that would result if they got caught.

The key point is, "Russia" didn't do it. Someone within Russia, might have, and if so probably mostly for its affect on other Russians. For that matter, the "U.S.A." didn't do it; but it is possible that someone within the US might have. Nations are not unitary actors, even when it is governmental action.

Why Ukraine need to blow up empty pipes instead of working one?

Gazprom, turned off gas pipeline breaking their contract to supply gas to EU, so they need something like that to avoid huge fine, while Ukraine don't, because Ukraine paid higher price for natural gas as consequence.

First of all, pipelines were not empty. They need to be filled with gas to stay operational on the sea bed.

Gazprom turned off pipelines because Germany and Canada were refusing to return one turbine with proper guarantees and maintain the others (Nord stream one was built with Western turbines, NS2 has Russian ones).

Ukraine tried to sabotage NS1 and 2 for many years as both were basically a replacement for the old Soviet gas transport system that fuels Ukraine up to this day. So, they had a very strong motivation to do it.

But my bet is on USA, as they have even stronger motive and much greater capability to physically sabotage it.

I don't believe Ukraine had anything to do with blowing up Nordstream.

But to your reasoning I would point out that the reason Nordstream was built in the first place: to bypass Ukraine in supplying Germany with gas.

Pipelines are still there. They relatively easy to repair.

IMHO, if Ukrainians or Americans will try to destroy pipeline, they will target compressors, which are much more expensive to repair.

Compressors are actually easier to repair as all the infrastructure is on the land, while underwater pipeline requires a lot of effort and very few ships can actually do such work.

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