There is a MITM risk regardless of whether they rotate the key. Except one is a one time risk and the other is a perpetual risk.
Thus rotating is the only logical course of action.
Thus rotating is the only logical course of action.
If you don't know for certain, you have to factor in the likelihood that it has been, and at that point, the two risks aren't equal anymore so that logic doesn't work.
You just ignore it and hope for the best ?
Only if you are certain (and better be really sure you haven't missed any cache/cdn, temp files backus etc.) it wasn't accessed you do nothing.
You should only keep moving along without key rotation if you know for 100% certainty a leak didn't happen and no one accessed the key (not theoretically impossible if they had the server logs to back it up), but anything minus that and you have to assume it's stolen.