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On the one hand, extrapolation from recent developments is always uncertain, and practically useless when we do not know how far it would have to be sustained, but on the other, the argument that we won't get there because we haven't made any progress yet will be just as true as it ever was right up until it is not.

I believe we are in the midst of the singularity. How exactly it plays out is important. It happened faster than anyone anticipated. People need to know. I see no moral value in claiming that this is business as usual.

>that is trying to convince people that AGI is a) just around the corner, and b) going to wipe out humanity, and is thus calling for drastic measures in reaction to that perceived threat.

But those are all likely true statements.

He clearly stated there's no hard evidence for either conclusion and he is just forming his own opinion.

This is clearly different from what you are doing. You are making a hard claim that everything you see with LLMs being conscious is science fiction. Unfortunately this claim cannot be made given lack of evidence and even lack of definition of what consciousness is. Therefore by logic your statement is the one that is outlandish here.